On a phenomenological and a quantitative basis it is possible to proof the validity of the First and Second Law of Thermodynamics in the Economy. On the basis if the First Law important conclusions can be drawn for the course of daily economic problems. The basic State Function of the Second...

Emerging market economies, which have much of their growth ahead of them, either run or should run persistent current account deficits in order to smooth consumption intertemporally. The counterpart of these deficits is their dependence on capital inflows, which can suddenly stop. We make two...

This article examines the implications of the existence of private information in the spot foreign exchange market. Our framework is a high-frequency version of a structural microstructure trade model that measures the market maker's beliefs directly. We find that the underpinnings for the...

A model is presented where the question of bank regulation is developed under a principal-agent scenario in a regime where the regulator has limited resources and banks may have an incentive to act ultra virus the regulatory standards. If banks are subject to random audit, then compliance is...

FinTech is a new term combining finance and technology. The term did not exist until the end of 2014. Although there is agreement over what finance is, there is no agreed upon definition of technology. It changes with time. American sociologist Read Bain wrote in 1937 that technology includes...

Chow, et al. (2016) use the theory of ascending stochastic dominance (ASD), descending stochastic dominance (DSD) to develop stochastic dominance (SD) tests for richness and poorness. In this paper, we extend their work by applying Markowitz stochastic dominance (MSD) and prospect stochastic...

We investigate predictive abilities of nonlinear models for stock returns when density forecasts are evaluated and compared instead of the conditional mean point forecasts. The aim of this paper is to show whether the in-sample evidence of strong nonlinearity in mean may be exploited for...

We introduce two online backtest overfitting tools: BODT simulates the overfitting of seasonal strategies (typical of technical analysis), and TMST simulates the overfitting of econometric strategies (typical of academic journals). We show that econometric methods lend themselves to extreme...

For large portfolio managers, a sequence of single-period optimal positions is rarely multi-period optimal. In particular, transaction costs can prevent large portfolio managers from monetizing most of their forecasting power. The solution is to compute the trading trajectory that comes...

The aim of this paper is to identify whether the GARCH or the SV based models provide the best goodness of fit to financial time-series data. To investigate the issue, three different formulations for each type (i.e., the standard model, the fat-tailed model, and the asymmetric model) are...