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Forecasting daily time series using periodic unobserved components time series models
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2004
We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and seasonal. Periodic time series models allow dynamic characteristics to depend on the period of the year, month, week or day. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342560
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Chapter 7 Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models
Harvey, Andrew - 2006
Structural time series models are formulated in terms of components, such as trends, seasonals and cycles, that have a direct interpretation. As well as providing a framework for time series decomposition by signal extraction, they can be used for forecasting and for ‘nowcasting’. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023699
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Modelling seasonalities in nonlinear inflation rates using SEASETARs
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni - 2000
) nonlinearityand seasonality simultaneously. The model is termed multiplicativeseasonal SETAR (SEASETAR). It can be viewed as a special … multiplicative constraints in non-multiplicative SETARmodels.These statistics form the basis of a new seasonality-test. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304390
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Seasonal adjustment versus seasonality modelling : effect on tourism demand forecasting
Gasmi, Amira - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 119-132
demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009762132
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Chapter 13 Forecasting Seasonal Time Series
Ghysels, Eric; Osborn, Denise R.; Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. - 2006
integrated models and deterministic seasonality models. As well as examining how forecasts are computed in each case, the …. Section 3 discusses less traditional models, specifically nonlinear seasonal models and models for seasonality in variance …. Such nonlinear models primarily concentrate on interactions between seasonality and the business cycle, either using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023693
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Persistence and seasonality in the US industrial production index
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Poza, Carlos - 2023
values) are taken, evidence of seasonality is obtained; more specifically, deterministic seasonality is rejected in favour of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427486
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A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series
Webel, Karsten - 2022
Infra-monthly time series have increasingly appeared on the radar of official statistics in recent years, mostly as a consequence of a general digital transformation process and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Many of those series are seasonal and thus in need for seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336397
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Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lee, Kai Ming - 2008
Unobserved components time series models decompose a time series into a trend, a season, a cycle, an irregular disturbance, and possibly other components. These models have been successfully applied to many economic time series. The standard assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374413
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Modeling trigonometric seasonal components for monthly economic time series
Hindrayanto, Irma; Aston, John A.D.; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2010
The basic structural time series model has been designed for the modelling and forecasting of seasonal economic time series. In this paper we explore a generalisation of the basic structural time series model in which the time-varying trigonometric terms associated with different seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379642
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Asymmetric time aggregation and its potential benefits for forecasting annual data
Kunst, Robert M.; Franses, Philip Hans - 2010
. -- seasonality ; time deformation ; prediction ; time series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009733809