This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the US and China can have in third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from inputoutput relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the US and...

We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these...