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established that the gasoline supply in the United States (U.S.) must contain 10% ethanol. This work seeks to identify hedging … ratios using dynamic multivariate GARCH to best identify hedging opportunities in a newly developed futures market. The … ability for firms to hedge and regulators to supervise the ethanol futures market is crucial to both hedging potential losses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979327
, crude oil, gold and currency compared to commodities, bonds and real estate. Furthermore, we test the effective hedging … ability of these funds by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights. Taking a short position in the volatility of … the funds provides impeccable hedging effectiveness for all asset classes, except currency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230114
The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike … prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005353
We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future … stochastic volatility process. Exploiting the conjugacy of the Wishart and the Gaussian distribution, we develop a … individual prices and their volatility. It also shows that this model has a good out-of-sample forecast performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864217
countries. Regarding the volatility spillovers, such spillovers from bond returns to those of stocks are stronger than the other … results show that by considering time-varying return and volatility spillovers when calculating the risk-minimising portfolio …This paper investigates the dynamic linkages in terms of the first and second moments between stock and bond returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663407
In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being … volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If higher volatility in one market leads to higher (lower) reactions in another … market, volatility reflects information (uncertainty). We introduce a simultaneous time-varying coefficient model, where …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339937
probability space. In the stochastic variance of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. The Mean-variance hedging expanse on the Föllmer … equivalence. The question arises is of the glaring surfeit in the immersion of the price of risk within the invariant state market … stochastic variance of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. The Mean-variance hedging expanse on the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956358
"expected precision'' (EP). The EP measures the level of consensus of expectations in the market about future returns … precisions, we define the "precision risk premium" (PRP) that informs about the premium the investors are willing to pay to avoid … Gaussian and relates to the VRP and market returns dynamics. Our result suggests that not only the accuracy but the precision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824055
We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336345
We adopt Schwartz and Smith’s model (2000) to calculate risk measures of Brent oil futures contracts and light sweet … crude oil (WTI) futures contracts and Mirantes, Poblacion and Serna’s model (2012) to calculate risk measures of natural gas … models provide satisfactory risk measures for listed energy commodity futures contracts. A simple estimation method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721302