We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to high-dimensional models involving large data sets. Samples are independent, so...

This article proposes a framework for the analysis of attitudes to foreign trade policies that challenges the traditional skill-endowment approach. The traditional approach assumes informed individuals who calculate the costs and benefits of alternative policies. We propose that individuals lack...

Dynamic customer targeting is a common task for marketers actively managing customer relationships. Such efforts can be guided by insight into the return on investment from marketing interventions, which can be derived as the increase in the present value of a customer's expected future...