revisional property of the NAIRU is also examined, as well as the forecast capacity of the unemployment gap with regard to wages … perspective, because the vast majority of estimates in the literature use wages to provide an estimate of the unemployment gap …. Therefore, an indicator which does not use wages at all to estimate the unemployment gap performs the best in forecasting wage …

wages reflect this, with lower pay for greater uncertainty. We use the dispersion of exam grades within a field of education … as an indicator of the unobserved heterogeneity that employers face. We find solid evidence that starting wages are lower …