Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments … implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors …, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility …

Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably … cashflow ; excess volatility ; variance bound test ; rational expectations …

hypothesis and volatility approaches using monthly data on stock market indices from January, 2005 to April, 2016. Parametric …-form efficient. The volatility results suggest that monthly stock returns of OPEC countries are volatile, with Qatar being most … volatile and shocks to volatility of stock returns are asymmetric. The implications of this are that: first, investors should …

The relationship between the level of stock market volatility and public information flow is non-linear, resembling a … bell-shaped function. Medium levels of information flow generate heightened volatility, whereas weak and strong information … realized GARCH model with time-varying intercept, measuring changes in the overall volatility level, which is governed by a new …

Even though volatility spillover effects in global equity markets have been documented extensively, the transmission of … illiquidity. We empirically study the illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in eight developed equity markets during and … after the recent financial crisis. The results indicate that equity markets are interdependent, both in terms of volatility …