Based on prospect theory, we posit that security analysts' target prices function as a reference point for takeover bids and affect deal completion. Using a sample of US takeovers from 1999 to 2014, we find a negative relation between target prices for a takeover target and the chances for...

This study develops a general equilibrium model within which self revelation of ability - that is not accompanied by any signaling - is compatible with arrival at rational expectations equilibriums (REE). In the model, economic agents either are 'confident', 'overconfident', or 'under-confident'...

The recent global financial crisis reignited concerns over systemic risk in the financial industry as a new type of systemic risk emerged – the severe loss of asset value due to illiquidity. The crisis has sparked a large body of research and has led to a number of new quantitative indicators...

Traditional pecking-order theory (POT) cannot explain why good-quality firms issue equity: this is often considered to be an empirical puzzle. We build a model of capital structure that has elements of both asymmetric information and behavioral finance. Firms have private information about their...

Suppose an economy within which rational expectations equilibriums (REE) are predicated on the distribution of ability, and the extent to which economic agents are doubtful (`doubtfulness') as to true realizations of their ability. Let a `societal REE' denote an REE that, simultaneously...

We use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market. The revelation of fundamental values in this market enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior...

The following paper is a theoretical introduction of the misinformation effect to behavioural finance. The misinformation effect causes a memory report regarding an event or particular knowledge to become contaminated with misleading information from another source. The paper aims to describe...

This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique dataset of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction...

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical test of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases including among others animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading. Using a data for five international capital markets in...

We construct a measure of individual investors' speculative demand for stocks from their online queries on penny stocks provided by Google Search volume index (hereafter "SVI"). We examine how it affects the return dynamics of U.S. stock indices. We find that the speculative demand leads to a...