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The wisdom of crowds : applying Condorcet's jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections

Murr, Andreas E. - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 916-929

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474728

Combining forecasts : an application to elections

Graefe, Andreas; Armstrong, Jon Scott; Jones, Randall … - In: International journal of forecasting 30 (2013) 1, pp. 43-54

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243645

Combining forecasts for elections : accurate, relevant, and timely

Rothschild, David - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 952-964

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474749

Arbitrage in political prediction markets

Stershic, Andrew; Gujral, Kritee - In: The journal of prediction markets 14 (2020) 1, pp. 69-104

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667592

Forecasting elections

Vaughan Williams, Leighton; Reade, J. James - In: Journal of forecasting 35 (2016) 4, pp. 308-328

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580765

Forecasting multiparty by-elections using Dirichlet regression

Hanretty, Chris - In: International journal of forecasting 37 (2021) 4, pp. 1666-1676

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013274328

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Graefe, Andreas - 2014

.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted … provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and vote shares than four established methods (vote intention polls … election campaigns …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065305

Polls to probabilities : comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

Reade, J. James; Vaughan Williams, Leighton - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 1, pp. 336-350

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300651

A Model to Forecast Midterm House Elections

Doti, James L.; Lawandy, Fadel - 2022

factors have a significant influence on midterm election results for the House. An analysis of the regression residuals … 2022 midterm election results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082461

Predicting a win by a small margin : the effect of graphic scaling in published polls on voters' predictions

Shalev, Edith; Peer, Eyal - In: Journal of behavioral decision making 36 (2023) 4, pp. 1-18

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337235

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