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This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that...
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quantities driven by common factors, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We formulate a model … returns: an average correlation premium. This premium is both statistically and economically significant, and considerably …-series behavior of the premium for the risk of changes in asset correlations (the premium for correlation risk), including its inverse …
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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
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