Showing 1 - 10 of 11,668
contacts drastically in the beginning, to almost eradicate the epidemic, and keeps them at around a third of pre-pandemic … survey data on social distancing and impure altruism from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The optimal policy reduces … epidemic in the laissez faire, though at a prevalence of infections much higher than optimal. Impure altruistic behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226761
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835657
This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827064
This paper studies the effects of social learning on the transmission of COVID-19 in a network model. We calibrate our model to detailed data for Cape Town, South Africa and show that the inclusion of social learning improves the prediction of excess fatalities, reducing the best-fit squared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232687
during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also … reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252205
Travel restrictions are often imposed to limit the spread of infectious diseases. As uniform restrictions can be inefficient and incur unnecessarily high costs, this paper examines the optimal design of restrictions that target specific travel routes. We propose a model with trade-offs between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198844
policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by documenting two motivating observations which highlight the value of … information: First, an overreaction in mitigation at the onset of the pandemic compared to its later stages; Second, a tendency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214741
I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832079
expert public. Since March 4, 2020, it has been publishing the numbers of coronavirus infections reported by health … few months. Since the second wave of the pandemic, the mere number of new infections and later the incidence number proved … through the months of an epidemic. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499513
We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that offer similar degrees of "realism" and exibility. We provide results connecting the different models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012223757