Recent research has focused on the role of the political and institutional context for the occurrence of political budget cycles, i.e. fluctuations in the budget balance when elections loom. This study turns to the economic factors. A formal model predicts that higher economic volatility...

We examine whether fiscal rules constrain incumbent governments to use fiscal policy for re-election purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984-2015 period, we find that after the Global Financial Crisis political...

The political budget cycle (PBC) literature argues that governments expand deficits in election years. However, what happens when an economic downturn is expected? Will the government allow the deficit to expand even further, or will it resort to spending cuts and tax increases? When voters...