The aim of this contribution is to study the sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension fund, through the analysis of demographic risk affecting these types of pension funds. A model for the evolution of the fund is presented considering the stochastic variables global asset return and new...

Pension reforms have been high on the political agenda in many developed countries over recent years and pension issues have been discussed intensely in the public as a result. In recent years, much effort has been devoted to make state, public and private pension systems fiscally more...

The aim of this paper is to analyze a particular demographic risk in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension funds. We focus on the influence of the demographic variable 'new entrants' and on its impact on the future evolution of the fund. The model adapts well to a closed pension fund which operates...

The pay-as-you-go social security system, which suffers from dwindling labor force, can benefit from immigrants with birth rates that exceed the native-born birth rates in the host country. Thus, a social security system provides effectively an incentive to liberalize migration policy. The paper...

Ýmrohoroðlu, Ýmrohoroðlu and Joines [1995, A life-cycle analysis of Social Security, Economic Theory, vol. 6, 83-114] show that the optimal replacement ratio of the payas-you-go public pension system in the US economy amounts to 30%. We extend their analysis to a model that 1) replicates the...

In this paper, we attempt to shed light on whether Japanese households are rational or if their behavior is influenced by culture and social norms by examining their saving and bequest behavior. To summarize our main findings, we find that Japan's household saving rate showed great volatility,...

We forecast income growth over the period 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium...

In this study, we construct a new dependency ratio measure by taking into account the consumption needs of the young and elderly people, and the productivity of middle-aged people. Different from the way that Cutler et al. (1990) and Weil (1999) constructed the relative needs by using the...

The demographic transition is a phenomenon affecting many industrialized societies. These economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. To implement appropriate reform measures, adequate...