This paper introduces Parameter Estimation by Raw Moments (PERM), a flexible method for evaluating a policy's impact on the parameters of an outcome distribution. Such parameters include the variance (E[Y 2 ]−E[Y] 2 ), skewness and covariance of two outcomes. PERM simplifies distributional...

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labor supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong countercyclicality of hours worked in the left tail of the income distribution following a monetary policy shock in the U.S....

Reasonably pricing data resources contributes to the development of the digital economy. However, in the early stage of the development of the data market, the data transaction volume is small, and the resulting small sample problem makes it difficult to accurately model and forecast the price...

The Taylor expansion is a widely used and powerful tool in all branches of Mathematics, both pure and applied. In Probability and Mathematical Statistics, however, a stronger version of Taylor's classical theorem is often needed, but only tacitly assumed. In this note, we provide an elementary...

We develop a model for point processes on the real line, where the intensity can be locally unbounded without inducing an explosion. In contrast to an orderly point process, for which the probability of observing more than one event over a short time interval is negligible, the bursting...

Despite growing interest in the use of complex models, such as machine learning (ML) models, for credit underwriting, ML models are difficult to interpret, and it is possible for them to learn relationships that yield de facto discrimination. How can we understand the behavior and potential...

We ask how machine learning can change a crucial step of the scientific process in economics: the advancement of theories through the discovery of "anomalies." Canonical examples of anomalies include the Allais Paradox and the Kahneman-Tversky choice experiments, which are concrete examples of...

A novel approach to analyzing time series generated by complex systems, such as markets, is presented. The basic idea of the approach is the Law of Self-Similar Evolution, according to which any complex system develops self-similarly. There always exist some internal laws governing the evolution...

This paper shows that row-continuous Markov chains with one or two boundaries have transient probabilities with matrix-geometric structure. Also explored is the relationship between the Green's function method and the matrix-geometric structure. Also explored is the relationship between the...

In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov-switching is developed to measure and predict turning points. Both common factors have their own cyclical dynamics and their lead-lag relationships are reflected in the transition probabilities matrix. The model is applied to four coincident...