minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks. Exchange rate forecasting, inflation forecasting, output …

attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for …

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area …, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation … estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation …

relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the … money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying … high inflation regime but the influence of money on such signal seems to be relevant mainly in the 70s and the early 80s, i …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin … Price Statistics for the euro area, the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the US and daily World Market Prices of …

US inflation appears to undergo shifts in its mean level and variability. We evaluate the performance of three useful …