We analyze the role of trade credit and financial frictions in the propagation of international trade shocks along the supply chain. First, we show empirically that exposure to import competition from China increased the use of trade credit in the U.S. Then, we use a multi-country input-output...

In his seminal paper, starting from the premise that productivity is heterogeneous across firms, Melitz (2003) nicely accounts for the stylized fact that the level of individual productivity is key in determining the capability of a firm to export. In this paper we build a model along Melitz's...

We study empirically the relation between currency excess returns and macro uncertainty, measured as forecast dispersion, on a wide set of economic indicators. We find that investment currencies deliver low returns whereas funding currencies offer a hedge when current account uncertainty is...

I examine the effect of a firm's tradability, the proportion of output that is exported abroad, on its stock returns over business cycles from 1947-2015. Firms with higher tradability have more cyclical asset returns, even after controlling for the real exchange rate. Returns of a portfolio long...

This working paper is written by Pasquale Della Corte (Imperial College London) and Aleksejs Krecetovs (Imperial College London).We empirically study the relationship between currency excess returns and current account uncertainty, measured as forecast dispersion. We find that investment...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor...

Epstein-Zin preferences have attracted signi.cant attention within the macrofinance literature based on DSGE models as they allow to substantially increase risk aversion, and consequently generate non-trivial risk premia, without compromising the ability of standard models to achieve...

A good description of the dynamics of interest rates is crucial to price derivatives and to hedge corresponding risk. Interest rate modelling in an unstable macroeconomic context motivates one factor models with time varying parameters. In this paper, the local parameter approach is introduced...

The paper examines three aspects of a financial crisis of domestic origin. The first section studies the evolution of a debt-financed consumption boom supported by rising asset prices, leading to a credit crunch and fluctuations in the real economy, and, ultimately, to debt deflation. The next...