Popular discussion commonly presumes an outsized role for minimum wage increases as a driver of wage increases for minimum wage workers. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy of this presumption using data from the earnings studies of the Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS wage and...

This paper presents results from the fourth year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent minimum wage changes. Using ACS and CPS data through 2018, we find that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment among low-skilled individuals by roughly 2.5...

This paper presents results from the third year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent minimum wage changes. Using ACS and CPS data through 2017, we find that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment among low-skilled individuals by just over 2...

This paper presents results from the first year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent state-level minimum wage changes. Through 2015 and 2016, we estimate that relatively large statutory minimum wage increases have reduced employment among low-skilled population...

Recent estimates suggest that in 2007, Afghan opiate production accounted for about 93% of the world’s total. This paper presents a framework for estimating the potential for source-country drug-control policies to reduce this production. It contains a first pass at estimating the potential...

We develop new facts relating news coverage, interest groups, and events in the legislative histories of minimum wage increases. First, we create and validate a database of news articles that includes coverage of minimum wages and organized labor. Second, we show that policy changes predict...

Over the past decade, organized labor has played a significant role in advocating for minimum wage increases. Why might this be, given that the minimum wage may act as a substitute for the bargaining power offered by labor unions? In this paper, we study the interplay between minimum wages and...

Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state's rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. We show that fiscal institutions can generate natural experiments in deficit-financed spending that are...