Erwartungen über die zukünftige Entwicklung der Wirtschaft sind von herausragender Bedeutung, um in einem stochastischen Umfeld die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen. Daher werden Prognoseverfahren seit langem erforscht. Grösstenteils basieren diese Untersuchungen auf Regressionstechniken...

A three parameter (location, scale, shape) generalization of the logistic distribution is fitted to data. Local maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters are derived. Although the likelihood function is unbounded, the likelihood equations have a consistent root. ML-estimation combined with...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

We present a methodology to estimate fixed cost parameters relevant to the decision to operate, mothballor retire an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) using a dynamic discrete choice model, based on fuel andelectricity prices, as well as technical data and the operational status of OCGTs in the PJM...

A new distribution called Generalized Odd Fréchet (GOF) distribution is presented and its properties explored. Some structural properties of the proposed distribution, including the shapes of the hazard rate function, moments, conditional moments, moment generating function, skewness, and...

In this paper, we propose formulations and algorithms for robust portfolio optimization under both aleatory uncertainty (i.e., natural variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information) arising from interval data. Epistemic uncertainty is represented using two...