The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

This work focuses on the political determination of a public education policy within the context of a general equilibrium macroeconomic model. The primary objective of this paper is to study whether publicly funded education can emerge and be sustained as a political and economic equilibrium in...

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...

Over the last couple of decades, it has become a commonplace to claim that institutions matter for economic development. Yet, institutions are not exogenous but the result of human action. It is argued here that the values and norms held by substantial parts of society's members are an important...

Secular stagnation refers not to the literal stagnation, i.e., stopping of economic growth but rather to the slowing of U.S. potential real GDP growth to half or less of its historical pace. The retardation of potential real GDP growth matters both because of its direct impact on the standard of...

In this paper we present a computable general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), specifically designed for the generation of long run scenarios of economic development, featuring a non-homothetic demand system, endogenous saving rates, differentiated industrial productivity growth, interest payments on...

We motivate and detail the newly developed G-RDEM recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model as a tool for long-term counterfactual analysis and baseline generation from given GDP and population projections. It encompasses an AIDADS demand system with non-linear Engel curves, debt...

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...