This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique dataset of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction...

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical test of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases including among others animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading. Using a data for five international capital markets in...

We construct a measure of individual investors' speculative demand for stocks from their online queries on penny stocks provided by Google Search volume index (hereafter "SVI"). We examine how it affects the return dynamics of U.S. stock indices. We find that the speculative demand leads to a...

Social interaction contributes to stochastic volatility and momentum in financial markets. By developing a simple evolutionary model of asset pricing and population game, we incorporate social interaction among investors with information uncertainty and show that social interaction leads to the...

Introducing extrapolative bias into a standard production-based model with recursive preferences reconciles salient stylized facts about business cycles (low consumption volatility, high investment volatility relative to output) and financial markets (high equity premium, volatile stock returns,...

Many financial instruments are designed with embedded leverage such as options and leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs). Embedded leverage alleviates investors' leverage constraints and, therefore, we hypothesize that embedded leverage lowers required returns. Consistent with this hypothesis,...

There has been considerable research into dynamic global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategies driven by simple measures of Valuation and Momentum applied to a baseline balanced portfolio of equities and fixed income (see Blitz and van Vliet 2008, Wang and Kochard 2011, Gnedenko and Yelnik...

<p>This document contains presentation slides for the American Finance Association's Presidential Address of January 4, 2020. The address is based on the paper "Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance."</p><p>The paper: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550880" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550880...</p>

Modern Portfolio Theory, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and the Efficient Market Hypothesis are cornerstone concepts in both academic and professional curricula. In spite of their long history and reputation, the CAPM and its extensions do not yield satisfactory empirical results. We argue...

This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22.7% per annum over the 1983-2015 periods. I find that the...