We propose a new real options analysis method for evaluating R&D investments using a novel Poisson process to simulate the discrete progress typical of R&D breakthroughs. We take explicit account of the technical risk of an R&D project, while the market risk and the effect of learning-by-doing...

The mainstream model of option pricing is based on an exogenously given process of price movements. The implication of this assumption is that price movements are not affected by actions of market participants. However, if we assume that there are indeed impacts on the price movements it no...

We provide a general valuation approach for capital budgeting decisions involving the modularization of a system. Within the framework developed by Baldwin and Clark (2000), we implement an approach using a numerical procedure based on the Least Squares Monte Carlo method proposed by Longstaff...

We derive closed-form expressions to price European calls and puts assuming the cash flows of the underlying asset or project are normally distributed. This approach has important advantages in the context of real options applied to infrastructure projects when compared to the Black-Scholes...

Start-up firms typically produce negative cash flows in the first years after their foundation. As a consequence, standard discounted cash flow methods are not applicable, often forcing practioneers into using theoretically dissatisfying devices like multiples. In this paper, we develop a...

We examine the impact on an R&D valuation and its investment timing of abrupt events, options facing paradise (blockbusters) and purgatory (catastrophes). We show that the presence of a special case of Lévy jumps can model positive and negative effects in the investment opportunity even when...

This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete...

We study the impact of financial innovations on real investment decisions within the framework of an incomplete market economy comprised of firms, investors, and an intermediary. The firms face unique investment opportunities that arise in their business operations and can be undertaken at given...