In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...

In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...

I analyze a general setting where a policy maker needs information that financial market traders have in order to implement her optimal policy, and market prices can potentially reveal this information. Policy decisions, in turn, affect asset values, hence forward looking traders may have...

We conduct a lab experiment to investigate an important corporate prediction market setting: A manager needs information about the state of a project, which workers have, in order to make a state-dependent decision. Workers can potentially reveal this information by trading in a corporate...

We investigate the informational content of prices in financial asset markets. To do so we use a large number of market experiments where the amount of information held by traders is precisely observed. We derive a new method to estimate how much of this information is incorporated in market...