Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...

In this paper we introduce new Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) models for the Skew-Gen-t (Skewed Generalized t) and NIG (Normal-Inverse Gaussian) distributions as alternatives to the recent DCS models for the Student’s-t and EGB2 (Exponential Generalized Beta of the second kind) distributions,...

The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous...

Determining the exchange rate pass-through on inflation is a necessity for central banks as well as for firms and households. This is an apparently easy and intuitive task, but it faces high complexity and uncertainty. This paper examines the short and long-term impact of an exchange rate shock...

In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (1991) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it...

This paper considers testing the unit root hypothesis against a smooth transition autoregressive model as the alternative. The model specification makes it possible to discriminate between nonstationary random walk and stationary nonlinear processes. Some new limit results are presented,...

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...

While it is widely agreed that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds as a long-run concept the specific dynamic driving the process is largely build upon a priori economic belief rather than a thorough statistical modeling procedure. The two prevailing time series models, i.e. the exponential...

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate...