Presented is the formulation for determining the exact, expected growth-optimal fraction of equity to risk for all conditions, rather than merely the asymptotic growth-optimal fraction. The formulation presented represents the surface in the leverage space manifold, wherein the loci at the peak...

Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations, Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change randomly, while payoffs are observable only when invested. In a stylized version of the task, we wondered whether...

Does frequent outperformance cause investors to buy? If so, do investors have a preference to outperform most of the time, or does frequent outperformance bias beliefs about the risk and return of an asset? In several randomized experiments, we show that retail investors purchase frequently...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

This paper provides a microfounded information acquisition technology based on a simple framework with information search. When searchable information is limited, an agent encounters increasingly more redundant information in his search for new information. Redundancy slows down the learning...

Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...

We posit a fund manager and an individual investor who maximize the expected (log) utility of their respective terminal wealth. The manager possesses more information than the investor does and charges the latter, her would-be customer, a linear compensation fee. The investor will delegate his...

Exact analytical solutions to the problem of computing a minimum semivariance portfolio cannot be obtained due to the endogeneity of the semicovariance matrix. However, when the number of assets is small, the weights for such a portfolio can be determined numerically. This paper presents the R...