The conduct of monetary policy is often characterised by either “hawks versus doves” or “rules versus discretion”. We use a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules by calculating quadratic loss ratios, the (inflation plus unemployment) loss in high deviations periods divided by the loss...

We use tests for structural change to identify periods of low, positive, and negative Taylor rule deviations, the difference between the federal funds rate and the rate prescribed by the original Taylor rule. The tests define four monetary policy eras: a negative deviations era during the Great...

Debates about the conduct of monetary policy have evolved over time from “rules versus discretion” to “policy rules versus constrained discretion.” We propose a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules that are consistent with constrained discretion by calculating quadratic loss ratios,...

We first show that the recent success of modern macroeconomic models in forecasting nominal exchange rates, evaluated using the Clark and West (2006) inference procedure, is in part due to the presence of the constant term (drift) in addition to the economic fundamentals. We then model the...

Early research on the Taylor rule typically divided the data exogenously into pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan subsamples. We contribute to the recent trend of endogenizing changes in monetary policy by estimating a real-time forward-looking Taylor rule with endogenous Markov switching...

In this paper we argue that major shifts in monetary policy regimes can explain a large part of the forward discount puzzle. First, we build a simple theoretical model suggesting that shifts by central banks from destabilizing regimes - when the Taylor principle is violated - to stabilizing...