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Noisy information and fundamental disagreement
Andrade, Philippe; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; … - 2013
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893
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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
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Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?
Reslow, André - 2019
forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012111567
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Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?
Reslow, André - 2019
forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012113630
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Strategic Distortions in Analyst Forecasts in the Presence of Short-Term Institutional Investors
Bilinski, Pawel - 2018
We document that analysts cater to short-term investors by issuing optimistic target prices. Catering dominates among analysts at brokers without an investment banking arm as they face lower reputational cost. The market does not see through the analyst catering activity and their forecasts lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937400
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Evaluating Strategic Forecasters
Deb, Rahul - 2019
Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902013
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The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
Ottaviani, Marco; Sorensen, Peter Norman - 2011
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184487
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The Strategy of Professional Forecasting
Ottaviani, Marco; Sorensen, Peter Norman - 2008
This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122864
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Long-Term Information in the Decision to Provide a Short-Term Forecast
Heinle, Mirko Stanislav; Kim, Chongho; Taylor, Daniel J.; … - 2021
Several recent empirical papers assert that the decision to disclose an earnings forecast shortly before the actual … dynamic model of voluntary disclosure, we show that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast reveals managers … decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast predicts earnings three years beyond the forecasted period, and that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245221
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Counterfactuals with Latent Information
Bergemann, Dirk - 2019
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892592