This paper presents a new method for identifying triangular systems of time-series data. Identification is the product of a bivariate GARCH process. Relative to the literature on GARCH-based identification, this method distinguishes itself both by allowing for a timevarying covariance and by not...

Eine große Herausforderung der multivariablen Analyse mit bilanziellen Kennzahlen besteht in der Identifikation derjenigen Kennzahlen, die zur besten Modellperformance führen und dabei möglichst leicht interpretierbar und intuitiv bleiben. Die Menge der in Frage kommenden Kennzahlen ist in...

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a modern factor analysis tool developed in the last two decades. Given p-dimensional data, we search for that linear combination of data which creates (almost) independent components. Here copulae are used to model the p-dimensional data and then...

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids. The Smolyak operator underlying the sparse grids approach frees global approximation from the curse of dimensionality and we apply it to a Chebyshev approximation of the...

We present an object-oriented software framework allowing to specify, solve, and estimate nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The implemented solution methods for finding the unknown policy function are the standard linearization around the deterministic steady state, and a...

Market option prices in last 20 years confirmed deviations from the Black and Scholes (BS) models assumptions, especially on the BS implied volatility. Implied binomial trees (IBT) models capture the variations of the implied volatility known as "volatility smile". They provide a discrete...

Accurate credit-granting decisions are crucial to the efficiency of the decentralized capital allocation mechanisms in modern market economies. Credit bureaus and many financial institutions have developed and used credit-scoring models to standardize and automate, to the extent possible, credit...

Traditional instrumental variable estimators do not generally estimate effects for the treated population but for the unobserved population of compliers. They do identify effects for the treated when there is one-sided perfect non-compliance. However, this property is lost when covariates are...

We will investigate valuation of derivatives with payoff defined as a nonlinear though close to linear function of tradable underlying assets. Derivatives involving Libor or swap rates in arrears, i.e. rates paid in a wrong time, are a typical example. It is generally tempting to replace the...