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RGAP: output gap estimation in R
Streicher, Sina - 2022
Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
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A Multivariate Unobserved Components Model to Estimate Potential Output in the Euro Area : A Production Function Based Approach
Tóth, Máté - 2021
This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243813
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Unobserved components model(s) : output gaps and financial cycles
Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien - 2023
The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343145
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Nonlinear Credit Dynamics, Regime Switches in the Output Gap and Supervisory Shocks
Lucidi, Francesco Simone - 2019
Over the last two decades the intensity of credit standards' tightening during economic contractions has exceeded their easing during expansions among euro area banks. This mechanism is fed by the boom-bust cycle of credit that, as much research has shown, is linked to financial instability with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865060
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Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition
Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512
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Measures of the output gap in the Euro-zone : an empirical assessment of selected methods
Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - 2001
die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche …The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473858
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Decomposing the Output Gap with Inflation Learning
Panovska, Irina; Ramamurthy, Srikanth - 2021
We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234838
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Improving output gap estimation : a bottom-up approach
Rathke, Alexander; Streicher, Sina - 2023
We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292
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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
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Monetary policy and hysteresis in potential output
Kienzler, Daniel; Schmid, Kai D. - 2013
Eine aktive Stabilisierung realwirtschaftlicher Fluktuationen spielt eine zentrale Rolle für die Geldpolitik, wenn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772964