We present a factor augmented forecasting model for assessing the financial vulnerability in Korea. Dynamic factor models often extract latent common factors from a large panel of time series data via the method of the principal components (PC). Instead, we employ the partial least squares (PLS)...

We develop a dynamic recursive model where political and economic decisions interact, to study how excessive debt-GDP ratios affect political sustainability of prudent fiscal policies. Rent seeking groups make political decisions - to cooperate (or not) - on the allocation of fiscal budgets...

We provide an overview of the rapidly evolving literature on shadow credit intermediation. The shadow banking system consists of a web of specialized financial institutions that conduct credit, maturity, and liquidity transformation without direct, explicit access to public backstops. The lack...

I analyze the rapidly growing literature about systemic risk in financial markets and find an important commonality. Systemic risk is regarded to be an endogenous outcome of interactions by rational agents on imperfect markets. Market imperfections give rise to systemic externalities which cause...

We provide an overview of the rapidly evolving literature on shadow credit intermediation. The shadow banking system consists of a web of specialized financial institutions that conduct credit, maturity, and liquidity transformation without direct, explicit access to public backstops. The lack...

Banking crises are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about particularly deep and long-lasting recessions. This paper attempts to explain these phenomena within a textbook DSGE model that features a non-trivial banking sector. In the model, banks are...

We present a model of the foreign exchange market with 2 types of investors: cash-constrained carry traders, and short-sighed boundedly rational technical traders. We show that the interactions between both agents explain several of the well-documented puzzles of the exchange rate. In...

Pro-cyclicality of collateral haircuts and margins has become a widely proclaimed behavior and is currently discussed not only by academic literature but also by regulatory authorities in Europe. Pro-cyclicality of haircuts is assumed to be a trigger of liquidity spirals due to its tightening...

Political economy theory expects politicians to use budget deficits to engineer an election-timed boom, known as the political business cycle. We challenge and contextualize this view by incorporating the financial constraints faced by governments into an electoral framework. We argue that the...