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speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011436064
EGARCH model. Empirical results indicate significant return and volatility spillover effects during the full sample and the …-movements, and strong volatility persistence. During the Russian Great Recession subsample, the ownreturn effects of the markets are … partially integrated and the volatility transmission linkages across them are not that strong in crises periods, thus confirming …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011454085
This study shows that market volatility affects stock returns both directly and indirectly through its impact on … liquidity provision and the negative relation between market volatility and stock returns arises not only from greater risk … premiums but also greater illiquidity premiums that are associated with higher market volatility. In particular, we show that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934316
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional unit root tests, more precisely on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and may be used in a repeated manner with rolling samples. The performance of the indicator is tested...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111338
This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that … fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by …. Variation in financial constraints connects Spillover Persistence to fragility. The results are consistent with the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499703
Reviewing the definition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887512
In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229642
it incorporates the co-movement and volatility of financial series as well as the levels of the series. Our index also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111879
Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon --- yet some economic agents could be particularly concerned about severe tail risk, rather than just mean returns. Motivated by present value logic, and the literature's suggestion that required...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925072