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This paper studies whether the choice of the crisis start dates affects the magnitude of contagion estimates. Contagion models generally use exogenously determined crisis start date by relying on event-based markers. We conduct structural break tests and endogenously determine the start dates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832244
It is widely agreed that the Nasdaq during the dot-com era 20 years ago was a full-fledged stock market bubble. Recently, the US stock market according to many metrics has become significantly more speculative and overvalued than it was at the dot-com peak 20 years ago. In both instances, a very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496514
We quantify the exposure of major financial markets to news shocks about global contagion risk accounting for local epidemic conditions. For a wide cross section of countries, we construct a novel data set comprising (i) announcements related to COVID19, and (ii) high-frequency data on epidemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838827
divergences in the tail returns from around the world. To do so, it applies extreme value theory to equity indices representing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049088
The exhibits support several conclusions we can draw from use of the Williams and Brigham-Pappas dividend growth models. The particular model selected to describe a stock's dividend time path has a great impact on the stock's identified value. This may be seen in the large differences in stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217463
Should central banks respond to asset price bubbles? This paper explores this monetary policy question in a hypothetical economy subject to asset price bubbles. Despite the highly stylized structure of the model, the results reveal several practical monetary policy lessons. First, a monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124824
We present a two-factor volatility model to study the impact of news arrival and trading volume on stock returns variance. The model can explicitly account for the association between volatility and volume, as well as the persistence in equity variance. Unlike the standard "Mixture of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997324
This paper traces the origin and development of the complex systems theory over the course of history, up to its latest … advancement in the study of stock market crashes. The trail of the theory's fuzzy evolution is expansive that covers the ground of … complex systems theory from another seemingly overlapping theory of the chaos systems. The paper recounts how researchers from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966774