We first delineate a general model that accounts for the common features of sightseeing trips to city attractions and to locations such as lakes and parks. Next, we use the theory of discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs) to formalize this general model and then we compute the one-step transition...

We first delineate a general model that accounts for the common features of sightseeing trips to city attractions and to locations such as lakes and parks. Next, we use the theory of discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs) to formalize this general model and then we compute the one-step transition...

The classical Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) informs economists' understanding consumer decisions to attend sporting events and models of team revenue generation. Coates, Humphreys and Zhou (2014) developed a reference dependent preference based consumer choice model under uncertainty...

In timing property listings, real estate developers can exercise the “option to wait” or “option to presale” to mitigate price uncertainty risk. In this study, we proposed a theoretical model to study the effectiveness of both strategies under a unified framework. We tested our model...

Bankruptcy courts have become fora for the sale of entire companies as going concerns, as well as for the liquidation of assets piecemeal. This book chapter teases out the advantages and disadvantages of conducting such sales under federal bankruptcy law as compared to state law. We first...

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional basketball coaches. We find they are more...

The convex payoff structure in professional golf rewards scoring volatility, giving rise to player types who succeed in spite of higher average scoring. The same risk incentives should influence all players to adjust risk strategies at key moments in tournaments when payoffs either crystalize or...