This paper proposes that the global financial and economic crisis has a single cause underlying all other causes. The single cause is attributed to the economic paradigm which drives individual behaviour, business, government and education. We define the economic paradigm and explain its power...

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) risk measure has been widely used in finance and insurance for capital and risk management. However, in recent years it has fallen somewhat out of favour due to a seminal paper by Artzner et al. (1999) who showed that VaR does not in general have all the four coherence...

Credit risk models have played a key part in the global credit crisis. The main shortcomings of these models are examined and a new causal framework is proposed to build deductive credit default models that have predictive capabilities

Most existing credit default theories do not link causes directly to the effect of default and are unable to evaluate credit risk in a rapidly changing market environment, as experienced in the recent mortgage and credit market crisis. Causal theories of credit default are needed to understand...

This paper is a scientific revolution in motion. Pragmatic empirical work is combined with macroeconomic theory to provide a scientific analysis of the influence of Keynesian theories on the performance the US economy since the Second World War. Despite recent decades of apparent revival of...

Key economic concepts of saving and investment are defined and discussed in this paper. It is shown that the equation “saving=investment” is a fundamental fallacy of macroeconomics due to a confusion between real and financial variables, and also between stock and flow variables. Economic...

It is shown empirically that, for the US economy, fiscal stimulus has increased total consumption, but has depressed economic growth. Therefore, decades of fiscal stimulus has been a continual depressant on US economic growth and moved the economy closer to the Keynesian singularity defined as...