A firm's current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them in...

The failure of financial institutions is often depicted as an externally-driven event in which certain triggers almost inevitably lead to the collapse of the firm. In contrast, this paper views institutional failure as a multistage process in which precautionary measures taken by the firm can...

Since 2008, catastrophic losses and financial turmoil have deeply shaken the insurance and reinsurance industries. Severe difficulties encountered by sector leaders like AIG and Swiss Re have shed light on the potential fragility of the players, and have increased attention on the subject of...

The empty creditor problem arises when a debtholder has obtained insurance against default but otherwise retains control rights in and outside bankruptcy. We analyze this problem from an ex ante and ex post perspective in a formal model of debt with limited commitment, by comparing contracting...

We introduce a new distance-to-default (DD) measure based on observable covariates, allowing us to bypass any model-based inference (e.g., Merton, 1974), that works well. It is based on the following result: The default event defined by endogenous credit-risk models, a sufficiently low asset...

The topic of insolvency risk in connection with life insurance companies has recently attracted a great deal of attention. In this paper, the question is investigated of how the values of the equity and of the liability of a life insurance company are affected by the default risk and the choice...

We study how risk management through hedging impacts firms and competition among firms in the life insurance industry - an industry with over 7 Trillion in assets and over 1,000 private and public firms. We show that firms that are likely to face costly external finance increase hedging after...

Within the context of expected utility and in a discrete loss setting, we provide a complete account of the demand for insurance by strictly-risk averse agents and risk-neutral firms when they enjoy limited liability. When exposed to a bankrupting, binary loss and under actuarially fair prices,...

A controversial new financing phenomenon has recently emerged. New “income share agreements” (“ISAs”) enable an individual to raise funds by pledging a percentage of her future earnings to investors for a certain number of years. These contracts, which have been offered by entities such...

This paper reviews recent research at the intersection of industrial organization and corporate finance on credit default swap (CDS) markets. These markets have been at the center of the financial crisis of 2007-09 and many aspects of their operation are not well understood. The paper covers...