In this paper, we explore the relation between information uncertainty and S&P 500 index option returns. Since underlying state variable affecting economy is unobservable, investors have to obtain their own estimations based on available information. During such procedure, it is inevitable that...

Option prices, particularly those of out-of-the-money equity index puts, are difficult to justify in a no-arbitrage framework. This paper shows how limits to arbitrage affect the relative pricing of out-of-the-money put vs. call options (option-implied skewness). Decomposing the price of...

Skewness is specifically considered to develop semi-parametric upper bounds for option prices and expected payoffs for call options. Bounds on variance default swaps, a new asset, and for the variance risk premium are derived.The Technical Proof for this paper is available at the following URL:...

We embed systematic default, pro-cyclical recovery rates and habit persistence into a model with a slight possibility of a macroeconomic disaster of reasonable magnitude. We derive analytical solutions for defaultable bond prices and show that a single set of structural parameters calibrated to...

In literature, many researchers focus on information contained in stochastic volatility dynamics, such as CBOE VIX index and its risk premium. However, there are relatively fewer studies on stochastic skewness dynamics. Simple linear regression indicates that stochastic volatility and stochastic...

We analyze the impact of funding costs and margin requirements on prices of index options traded on the CBOE. We propose a model that gives upper and lower bounds for option prices in the absence of arbitrage in an incomplete market with differential borrowing and lending rates. We show that...

A large literature finds evidence that pricing kernels nonparametrically estimated from option prices and historical returns are not monotonically decreasing in market index returns. We argue that existing estimation methods are inconsistent and propose a new nonparametric estimator of the...

We use a novel definition of tail risk for option pricing purposes, based on the concept of almost stochastic dominance (ASD) in order to examine empirical “puzzles” documented in several high profile studies of the market for S&P 500 index options. We find that with one exception these...

In this analysis we are concerned with the issue of whether market forecasts of volatility, as expressed in the Black-Scholes implied volatilities of at-the-money European options on the S&P500 Index, are superior to those produced by a new forecasting model in the GARCH framework which...

This paper implements a novel model-free methodology to measure skewness risk premia in individual stocks. The methodology takes the form of a trading strategy, a skewness swap. The return on the strategy shows a significant positive skewness risk premium in individual stocks. The risk premium...