. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics …

cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation … dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more flexible, leading output and inflation to be more volatile, and bonds … to become more risky. The model matches well the relation between the level of inflation and a number of salient macro …

dynamics of inflation risk premia over the 1983-2013 period by allowing for time-varying market prices of inflation risk and … incorporating survey information on inflation uncertainty in the estimation. The model captures changes in premia over very diverse … periods, from the inflation scare episodes of the 1980s, when perceived inflation uncertainty was high, to the more recent …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

We estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the USA from 1997 to 2019 using expected inflation from financial … instruments. We use a spliced series comprised of the TIPS spread and inflation swaps. Empirical tests find higher coefficients on … backward-looking inflation than forward-looking, except for the 2009 – 2015 period of zero lower bound Fed Funds rate target …

consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …

consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …

Theory predicts that the equilibrium real interest rate, r*t, and the perceived trend in inflation, ð*t, are key …

We propose a DSGE model with regime switching in the central bank's inflation target to explain inflation compensation … in the UK. Taking advantage of the well-documented change in UK monetary policy to adopt inflation targeting, we estimate … our model using nominal and inflation-linked Treasury bond data from the UK from 1985 to 2007. We find that this model can …

A no-arbitrage pricing model with inflation as the only priced risk factor explains the bond, equity, and value premia … observed in the United States over the past sixty years. Even though inflation is the only priced factor, in an economy with … three state variables -- inflation, the real rate, and corporate profitability -- the real rate and profitability play a …