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Many recent papers have investigated the role played by volatility in determining the cross-section of currency returns … returns from the currency carry trade. We show that the importance of volatility depends on whether the currency markets are … unexpectedly volatile. Volatility innovations during relatively tranquil periods are largely unrewarded in the market, whereas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012591966
We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850036
There is rarely another field in economics where the prevailing theoretical models have been contradicted so strongly by empirical evidence as exchange rate economics. This study therefore attempts to investigate exchange rate dynamics in an exploratory way. It is first demonstrated that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135726
The first part of this paper briefly summarizes the assumptions of economic theory on the relationships between exchange rates, prices and interest rates and the same time compares these assumptions with the empirical evidence. The fact that there exist strong discrepancies, which in recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135774
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135729
This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014222188
the study of the distribution properties of price volatility in the international exchange market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054563
The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209529
This paper employs the post — Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (post — LASSO) to make rolling 1-month--ahead currency excess return forecasts using all other currencies' lagged forward discounts as candidate predictors. The trading strategy of buying (selling) quintile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850361