This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond …-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside … conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that downside risk can explain a large proportion of the variation in yield spreads …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …