Using data from a decade of surveys of corporate managers, I find evidence that firms with higher expected stock returns have a higher perceived cost of equity and use higher discount rates in capital budgeting. Variation in expected stock returns, as measured by exposure to equity risk factors,...

This paper attempts to develop a theory of statistical equilibrium based on an entropy-constrained framework, that allow us to explain the distribution of stock returns overdi erent market trends. By making use of the Quantal Response Statistical Equilib-rium model (Scharfenaker and Foley,...

Extreme asset price movements appear to be more pronounced recently and have major consequences for an economy's financial stability and monetary policies. This paper investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns and quantifies the probabilities of these losses. Taking fourteen...

Stock market anomalies representing the predictability of cross-sectional stock returns are one of most controversial topics in financial economic research. This chapter reviews several well-documented and pervasive anomalies in the literature, including investment-related anomalies, value...

In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main ways. First, we explicitly relate crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a...

This study is to assess the dynamics effects of business confidence and consumer confidence on stock market risk premiums and to determine the relative importance of business confidence and consumer confidence in forecasting the variability of stock market risk premiums though a variance...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

How much news is there in aggregate accounting earnings? I provide evidence that earnings changes at the stock market level are correlated with new information about not only expected future cash flows but also discount rates. A comprehensive investigation of the link to discount rates reveals...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

We develop a tractable RBC model of the stock market with heterogenous firms. Shares value rests on the rent extracted from proprietary technology à la Dixit-Stiglitz. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the fundamental equilibrium. Closed form solutions are provided for the market...