Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...

The investment industry lacks an unified framework for handling derivative instruments in general portfolio management. With the increased use of derivatives, there is a need for a framework that aligns fundamental terminology and concepts. The main challenges with the current practices are...

We highlight important and specific characteristics of default risk and methodological implications. In a simulation contrasting independent, Gaussian and Clayton copulas, we also show that joint default probabilities might be a hidden source of risk in conventional portfolio models of default

The optimization of a large random portfolio under the Expected Shortfall risk measure with an ℓ₂ regularizer is carried out by analytical calculation. The regularizer reins in the large sample fluctuations and the concomitant divergent estimation error, and eliminates the phase transition...

In this paper, we propose a method for hedge fund replication using a factor-based model supplemented with a series of risk and return constraints that implicitly target all the moments of the hedge fund return distribution. We use the approach to replicate the monthly returns of ten broad hedge...

This paper develops an approximate closed-form optimal portfolio allocation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH(1,1) process. We consider an investor with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility who wants to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth under a...

In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most popular risk measure in financial regulation. Although ES is - in addition to many other nice properties - a coherent...

In this work, we propose an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model with standard classical tempered stable (CTS) innovations for historical daily returns of 29 selected stocks. The non-Gaussian nature of the innovations captures the fat-tail property observed in data. The dependency between different assets...

An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid Mixture of t approximations [QERMit]. As a first step the...

In the presence of asset returns’ non-normal behavior, optimal portfolio selection techniques should consider higher-moment risks. In this paper, we extend the Black-Litterman (BL) asset allocation model (Black & Litterman, 1990) by applying the hidden truncation skew-normal distribution...