Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese … Konjunkturzyklus. Es zeigt sich, dass der jahrzehntelange Aufwärtstrend der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland vollständig durch Hysterese … erklärt werden kann. Dagegen folgte die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA keinem Hysterese-Muster, auch nicht während der großen …

In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call … employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits …

unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The theory of hysteresis challenges this … strong empirical evidence of unemployment hysteresis in advanced economies since the 1990s. Relying on an identification …

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the … is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on … respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy. …

enables hysteresis to be taken into account. Hysteresis is likely to show up in unemployment but it can also affect the … capital stock due to the existence of long investment cycles. In the proposed model, hysteresis may affect all the factor … be computed that are hysteresis-free and less prone to volatility. A complementary measure of the output gap that takes …

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we … introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the … hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions …

recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is … countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding … more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger …

contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and …

A new test for hysteresis based on a nonlinear unobserved components model is proposed. Observed unemployment rates are … lagged cyclical shocks on the current natural component is the measure of hysteresis. To derive anappropriate p-value for a … test for hysteresis two alternative bootstrap algorithms are proposed: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and …

This paper introduces unemployment hysteresis into a tractable New Keynesian three equation model using an insider …