This paper proposes an econometric framework to estimate market risk prices associated with risk-neutral measures Q under incomplete markets. We show that, under incomplete markets, the market price of risk is not point-identified but is instead identified as a bounded subset of an affine...

This paper proposes a nonparametric test for conditional independence that is easy to implement, yet powerful in the sense that it is consistent and achieves n^{-1/2} local power. The test statistic is based on an estimator of the topological "distance" between restricted and unrestricted...

Engle and Manganelli (2004) propose CAViaR, a class of models suitable for estimating conditional quantiles in dynamic settings. Engle and Manganelli apply their approach to the estimation of Value at Risk, but this is only one of many possible applications. Here we extend CAViaR models to...

In this paper we provide considerable Monte Carlo evidence on the finite sample performance of several alternative forms of White?s [1982] IM test. Using linear regression and probit models, we extend the range of previous analysis in a manner that reveals new patterns in the behavior of the...

We propose a new family of density function that posses both flexibility and closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, making them particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulness by applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation. Our...

Sharpe style regression has become a widespread analytic tool in the financial community. The style regression allows one to investigate such interesting issues as style composition, style sensitivity, and style change over time. All previous methods to obtain the distribution and confidence...

We take a model selection approach to the question of whether a class of adaptive prediction models (artificial neural networks) is useful for predicting future values of nine macroeconomic variables. We use a variety of out-of-sample forecast-based model selection criteria, including forecast...

In this paper we advance the idea that optimal risk management under the Basel II Accord will typically require the use of a combination of different models of risk. This idea is illustrated by analyzing the best empirical models of risk for five stock indexes before, during, and after the...

The Basel III Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one of a range of alternative risk models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR)....