For a weighted sum of asset returns that are independent and identically distributed (IID) up to variance, we derive expressions linking the distribution of variance across assets with higher-order portfolio moments, assuming these quantities are finite. In particular, we show concise...

We introduce a new framework for understanding portfolio diversification that provides a coherent basis for comparing methodologies and offers a new approach to portfolio construction. The primary argument is that measures of diversification based only on a covariance matrix are ambiguous...

Herein we attempt to quantify Tom McClellan’s notion of Dance Steps between two series of data, often of differing time periods (a current, or dependent and a previous, or independent period data series), looking for similarities in the turning points to use as a reference for the future...

Diversification is a fundamental topic for all investors but there remains little agreement on how to measure it. Often it is defined ambiguously through risk-based portfolio construction techniques. Recently it has been suggested to connect maximising diversification with minimising risk...

We propose a class of flexible non-parametric tests for the presence of dependence between components of a random vector based on weighted Cramér-von Mises functionals of the empirical copula process. The weights act as a tuning parameter and are shown to significantly influence the power of...

Заключительная часть консультации посвящена описанию подходов к эмпирическому подбору подходящей копула-функции и методов статистической проверки гипотез,...

This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...