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Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?

Heilemann, Ullrich; Stekler, Herman O. - 2003

The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509825

Real-time Markov switching and leading indicators in times of the financial crisis

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616498

When Positive Sentiment is Not so Positive : Textual Analytics and Bank Failures

Gupta, Aparna - 2017

We extend beyond healthiness assessment of banks using quantitative financial data by applying textual sentiment … discriminate between failed and non-failed banks 80% of the time. However, we find that positive sentiment contains stronger … predictive power than negative sentiment; out of ten failed banks, on average positive sentiment can identify seven true events …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969367

Sentiment analysis of text guided by semantics and structure

Hogenboom, Alexander Cornelis - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408190

Sentiment and uncertainty about regulation

Sinclair, Tara M.; Xie, Zhoudan - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586473

Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns

Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...