This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

predictions of euro exchange rates leads to improvements in predictive accuracy as measured by the mean square forecast error …. While the forecasting error of the combined forecast tends to be systematically smaller than that of the individual model … significantly in terms of squared forecast errors. Direction of change statistics, on the other hand, are significantly improved by …