State-of-the-art stochastic volatility models generate a 'volatility smirk' that explains why out-of-the-money index puts have high prices relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark. These models also adequately explain how the volatility smirk moves up and down in response to changes in risk....

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the changes in risk premium in the 1980s. A five-variable vector autoregressive model (VAR) is constructed to calculate a risk premium series in the foreign exchange market. The risk premium series is volatile and time-varying. The hypothesis of no...

Weekly option writing returns in currency markets are (volatility-) regime dependent: they are low when implied volatility is low, and high when implied volatility is high. However, a time-varying volatility risk premium (ex-post) might only be part of the explanation. Daily exchange rate...

We utilise functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. Based on existing techniques in the literature, the...

Forex (foreign exchange) is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders. It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of the exchange rate between two currencies. However, incorrect predictions in...