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Are the current accounts of Asian-5 economies mean-reverting? : new evidence from Fourier panel stationarity tests

Husein, Jamal; Kara, S. Murat; Pier, Chuck - In: Cogent economics & finance 11 (2023) 2, pp. 1-11

This study offers a novel examination of the mean-reversion properties of the current account balances, expressed as a percentage of GDP, for the Asian-5 economies: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. While prior studies mainly employed traditional unit-root tests, our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501140

Sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey

Karahan, Özcan - In: International journal of business and economic sciences … 13 (2020) 2, pp. 62-69

Purpose: This study aims to examine the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey for the quarterly data between 2003 and 2018. Besides, some policy implications are made to ensure the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey’s economy. Design/methodology/approach:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293106

Purchasing Power Parity in High Inflation Countries : A Cointegration Analysis of Integrated Variables with Trend Breaks

Zhou, Su - 1998

This paper examines the long-run validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) for four high-inflation countries. The method of Zivot and Andrews (1992) is employed to detect the time-series behavior of the exchange rates and consumer price indices of these countries. We find that these variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014071881

Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model

Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija - 2016

This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we … indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker … (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623919

A Discrete Time Series Model for High Frequency Financial Data

Mitchell, Heather Eunice - 2012

In this paper a flexible model for correlation in high frequency data is proposed, which maintains the data's discrete nature and captures features such as asymmetry and excess zeros. The model uses an a theoretical approach based on that of an ARIMA model. This model works with price changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104300

Current account deficit in Turkey : cyclical or structural?

Kara, Hakan; Sarıkaya, Çağrı - 2014

Turkey's high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010432246

60 %, -4 % and 6 %, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2021

We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the relationship is bi-directional for the EU...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649364

The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality : a short-run analysis of Peru

Sobrino, César R. - In: Journal of economics, finance & administrative science 18 (2013) 34, pp. 9-15

This study examines causation between the current account and the fiscal surplus and fiscal spending for a commodity-based economy, Peru. Using quarterly data for the open economy, the outcomes reject the twin deficits hypothesis. Instead, the evidence points strongly to reverse causality, that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872218

The expectations-driven U.S. current account : conference paper

Hoffmann, Mathias; Krause, Michael; Laubach, Thomas - 2013

Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341123

Empirical estimates for the Brazilian total imports equation using quarterly national accounts data (1996-2010)

Gouvêa, Raphael Rocha; Schettini, Bernardo Patta - In: Economia : revista da ANPEC 16 (2015) 2, pp. 250-271

This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996-2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865510

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