Research shows that the predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates is time-varying; it may be detected in some periods and disappear in others. This paper uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting exchange rates....

Rogoff suggested in 1996 that the dollar-yen real exchange rate represented a 'canonical' case of a trend in the equilibrium real exchange rate. The implied speed of adjustment of the dollar-yen real exchange rate is found to be substantially faster, with half-life shocks of less than 2 years,...