This chapter develops a toolkit of neoclassical macroeconomic models, and applies these models to the U.S. economy from 1929 through 2014. We first filter macroeconomic time series into business cycle and long-run components, and show that the long-run component is typically much larger than the...

This chapter develops a toolkit of neoclassical macroeconomic models, and applies these models to the U.S. economy from 1929 through 2014. We first filter macroeconomic time series into business cycle and long-run components, and show that the long-run component is typically much larger than the...

This is consequent upon an earlier paper of mine (Non linear economic time series as a test bed for dynamic macro models) which was an exercise in using nonlinear time series analysis (NLTS) to assess the fit of a dynamic nonlinear macro economic process, the Goodwin model, against...

Recent work by Clements and Hendry have shown why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the...

Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. CAMPLET: Seasonal adjustment without revisions -- Chapter 3. Seasonal adjustment of economic tendency survey data -- Chapter 4. Residual Seasonality: A Comparison of X13 and CAMPLET -- Chapter 5. COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment -- Chapter 6. Seasonal...