We focus on the testing of a unit root in the integer-valued autoregression of order one. Finite sample distributions for a Dickey-Fuller test of a random walk with drift with Poisson distributed and, hence, skewed errors are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation

In this analysis, we discuss two measures that have been used by economists to measure changes in macroeconomic policies: the dynamic multiplier and the impulse response function. These multipliers are identical under specific conditions, e.g., by imposing certain restrictions on a VAR model....

Does the use of information on the past history of the nominal interest rates and inflation entail improvement in forecasts of the ex ante real interest rate over its forecasts obtained from using just the past history of the realized real interest rates? To answer this question we set up a...

This paper gives a new approach to diffuse filtering and smoothing for multivariate state space models. The standard approach treats the observations as vectors while our approach treats each element of the observational vector individually. This strategy leads to computationally efficient...

This paper proposes a tripartite framework of design, evaluation, and post-evaluation analysis for generating and interpreting economic forecasts. This framework's value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic models and nonlinearity biases from empirical...

In this article we propose a testing procedure for multivariate threshold autoregression with the disturbances following conditional homoscedastic martingale difference sequences. Essentially, the discussed test statistics are an extension of the work of Chan and Tong (1990) and Chan (1991), as...

The purpose of the present paper is to relate two important concepts of time series analysis, namely, nonlinearity and persistence. Traditional measures of persistence are based on correlations or periodograms, which may be inappropriate under nonlinearity and/or non-Gaussianity. This article...

The Multiplicative Error Model for nonnegative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with nonnegative support. A multivariate extension allows the innovations to be contemporaneously correlated. The estimation...

Many research problems are characterized by complex relationships between time series variables, such as simultaneity (e.g., feedback loops between communication channels) and state-dependence (e.g., marketing interactions with observed and unobserved sales channel variables). The authors...

In analysing time series of counts, the need to test for the presence of a dependence structure routinely arises. Suitable tests for this purpose are considered in this paper. Their size and power properties are evaluated under various alternatives taken from the class of INARMA processes. We...